GISPRI No. 17, 1999

     As we embark upon the year marking the end of the 20th century, what problems should we consider and what preparations should we make for the coming 21st century in the year 1999?

     Let us begin with my evaluation on the 20th century.  

     Perhaps, the phrase that best describes the 20th century is the evolution from a time of confrontation and stagnation to a time of coexistence and mutual growth.  At the beginning of the 20th century, Asia, Africa and Latin America, under the plantation regimes of major powers for many years, were full of storming discontent and confrontation, while the major power countries themselves were engaged in a never-ending power struggle, resulting in two World Wars during the first half of the 20th century.

     The latter half of this century started as the age of East-West confrontation in the Cold War with two winners of the Second World War, USA and USSR, as superpowers.  The age of the Cold War finally ended with the dismantling of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

     Most of the plantation regimes dissolved by the first half of the 20th century.  Today, the number of United Nations member countries has risen to 185 countries as of March 1998, and the co-existence system, with the United Nations in its core, is rooted in the world community.

     During the 20th century the world population quadrupled from 1.5 billion to about 6 billion.  Despite such a rapid population growth, the world today is able to feed everyone, except for those in poverty stricken regions, with full food supply capacity, and, in addition, can provide significant improvement in basic living conditions and welfare through unprecedented progress in industrial technologies and productions.

     With the expanding uses of automobiles and the development of airplanes, the global community has expanded its range of activities dramatically, and enabled work beyond the limits of time, space and locations through rapid development in information and telecommunication technologies for the last several years.

     As a result of these trends, free trade and the market economy have become common values shared by a global society.  Furthermore, the exchanges between different peoples and cultures across national borders have increased significantly.  During the first half of the 20th century, however, occasional military confrontations caused economic stagnation, epitomized by the Great Depression in 1929 which provoked a worldwide economic depression.  In the second half of this century, the world economy, in general, maintained a fairly large economic growth pattern, thanks to the many favorable conditions mentioned above.

     While the 20th century has evolved from the world of confrontation and stagnation to the world of coexistence and growth, the signs of new risks and dangers are brewing at the bottom of a society.  Although there have not been any significant wars involving the majority of nations, the number of regional confrontations in the latter half of the 20th century numbers over 700, with ethnic and religious conflicts growing increasingly complicated.  The number of escaped refugees already has exceeded 30 million people, and still climbing.

     Rapid population growth is not only broadening wage disparities, but also increasing the risks of creating new conflicts in the coming 21st century, due to the concentration of the population growth within certain racial groups and income levels.

     The risks of global environmental destruction are apparent in many sectors because of population growth, economic development, and energy consumption, which are factors that may endanger human sustainability.

     Improved living standards seem to weaken the sense of family values and social integrity.  Some point to the danger of cyber-space communication as potentially reducing human sensitivity and the ability to maintain human relationship.

     Furthermore, with financial and monetary crises brewing in Asia, Russia and Latin America there has been an increasing drive to review the market-oriented system, and to question excessive monetary fluidity that can accelerate speculations in finances.  Moreover, the distribution of nuclear warheads are gradually spreading, so that multi-national security systems once thought to be safely fixed are crumbling.  We should not overlook such an accumulation of risks and dangers.

     We should not be content and pleased with the successful ending of the 20th century.  We need to treat dangerous symptoms that threaten the global communityﾕs security with the greatest of care.  Todayﾕs Japan lacks sensitivity and leadership.  Its peopleﾕs feeling of stagnation may further push Japan into a long downslide, and raise anxiety level in our ability to contribute to the resolution of global problems.

     We must make this year, 1999, a year to draw a clear vision for the global community and Japanese society for the 21st century, and to clearly define the direction of our future actions.